508 Primo Fiore Terrace

Buyer Market Analysis — Prepared for Katie Maguire

The Peninsula at Rough Hollow · Lakeway, Texas 78738

Daniel & Jacquelyn Foreman | Foreman Property Group | eXp Realty Luxury

October 2026

The Short Answer

Before the detail, here is where the data lands.

  • Market value today: $3,850,000 – $4,150,000, with a most-probable value of $4,040,000. That is $3,790,000 for the home (about $594 per square foot) plus $250,000 for the privately owned boat slip at the Peninsula marina, which transfers with the home.
  • The figure being discussed — about $4,600,000 — is roughly $560,000 (14%) above our value. Even after setting aside the slip, it prices the house closer to new construction than to any resale. This home was completed in 2021.
  • The pool must be tested before you commit. A hairline crack in the spa seat, on a pool built in the 2020–2021 window, calls for a concrete (ASR) test. We explain this plainly later in this analysis.
  • Our recommended offer range, including the slip: $3,950,000 to open, $4,050,000 target, $4,200,000 ceiling — every figure conditioned on a clean pool result.

The Home at a Glance

Purchase history: The current owners contracted in January 2021 while the home was under construction and closed in July 2021 at $3,485,715 ($546/SF).

Understanding the Lot

The lot measures 2.14 acres, but most of that acreage is a long, narrow strip — roughly 790 feet — that runs downhill from the home toward Lake Travis and narrows to about 77 feet at the shoreline, where it meets the FEMA floodplain.

What this means for you:

  • The usable homesite — house, pool, yard — is the upper portion near the street. Day to day, it lives like a lot of roughly an acre, not two.
  • The strip provides privacy and a long view corridor, and it is a genuine attribute.
  • Lake access comes through a private slip at the Peninsula marina, which conveys with the home. We value the slip separately from the land (see the value analysis). The shoreline strip itself carries no private dock, and we have not assigned value to any future dock potential there.

Source: 2021 boundary survey (Allstar Land Surveying).

What Makes This Home Appealing

  • Scale. At 6,382 SF it is larger than every resale in The Peninsula over the past two years except one.
  • Main-level living. Primary suite and a guest suite downstairs; study, media and game rooms for flexibility.
  • Distant lake view. Not the full panoramic view some Peninsula homes have, but a real Lake Travis view — which several resales in the gate do not have.
  • A private boat slip. The home includes its own slip at the Peninsula marina. None of the resales in this analysis list a private slip.
  • Privacy. The flag-lot shape places no neighbor behind the home.
  • Established design team. Vanguard Studio architecture, Alan Dale construction. The plans identify it as a speculative (spec) build, designed for the market rather than for a specific owner.

What it is not: a new home. Finishes are original to 2021, and buyers in The Peninsula pay a clear premium for new construction — the single most important point in this analysis.

How to Read This Analysis

A few terms we use throughout:

  • Comparable sale ("comp"): a nearby home that sold recently. Comps are the evidence for value.
  • Price per square foot ($/SF): sale price divided by living area. It lets us compare homes of different sizes.
  • Original list price: the first asking price. We measure every sale against it, because later price reductions hide how far off the first number was.
  • Days on market (DOM): how long a home was listed before going under contract.
  • Resale vs. new construction: a resale has been lived in; new construction is sold by the builder. In The Peninsula, these trade in two very different price bands.

The Peninsula: Two Markets Behind One Gate

Over the past two years, nine homes closed in The Peninsula. They divide cleanly into two groups.

The gap between new and resale is roughly $260 per square foot — about a third of the price.

508 Primo Fiore is a resale. At $4,600,000 — even after setting aside $250,000 for the private slip — the house would be priced at $682/SF: $121/SF above the highest resale in this data, and within $70/SF of brand-new construction.

Every Resale in The Peninsula, Past Two Years

*Sold with seller-provided financing, which supports a higher price.

The highest resale price in The Peninsula over two years is $3,300,000. No resale has launched above $3,500,000.

Today, there are no other homes for sale in The Peninsula. That scarcity is real, and it is one reason this home deserves serious attention. It does not change what resales have actually sold for.

Days shown are cumulative days on market.

New Construction Sales, for Context

Why this matters: 504 Primo Fiore, two doors down, sold for $4,100,000 in late September. It will likely be used to support a $4.6M price. But it was brand new, with upgrades paid outside of closing. Applying a new home's price per square foot to a five-year-old home is the core flaw in the $4.6M figure.

Our Value Analysis: The Best Comparable

496 Primo Fiore Terrace — same street, same 2020 vintage, similar style, sold June 2026 for $3,200,000. We adjust its price for each meaningful difference.

We show the slip on its own line so you can see exactly what it adds. The slip carries a $567 monthly maintenance fee, included in your ownership costs.

Additional square footage is valued at $275/SF — about half the average — because the last square feet in a large home add less value than the first.

Cross-Checks

Three independent ways of looking at value. Each lands at or below our indicated value — which tells you our number already gives this home full credit for its size, lake view and privacy.

  1. The resale band. The resale median of $523/SF applied to 6,382 SF is $3,338,000. The highest resale rate, $561/SF, gives $3,580,000.
  1. The most recent resale. 609 Vendemmia Bend — larger, with a panoramic lake view — sold in September for $3,300,000 at full asking price in 37 days. A buyer at that price could choose a bigger home with a better view.
  1. The 2021 purchase. The current owners paid $3,485,715 in 2021. Peninsula resales have softened since: 611 Casasanta Trail sold for $2,910,000 in 2025 and resold for $2,600,000 in 2026 — 10.7% lower in one year.

Indicated range for the home: $3,600,000 – $3,900,000. With the $250,000 slip: $3,850,000 – $4,150,000. Most-probable value: $4,040,000.

What Happens When Resales Launch High

We measured every closed sale against its original list price.

Homes priced near market sold close to their asking price in about seven weeks. Homes that launched high cut their price, sat for most of a year, and still sold about 10% below where they started.

What this means for you: if 508 Primo Fiore launches near $4.6M, the pattern says it is unlikely to sell quickly at that number. Time is on the buyer's side — provided the right offer is ready.

Every Peninsula Home That Launched at $4.6M or Above

Only two homes have launched at or above $4.6M in two years. Both were new construction with panoramic main-lake views, and 629 has its own private dock with a tram. 508 Primo Fiore shares the private-slip advantage, but it is a 2021 resale with a distant view.

The Pool: Understanding ASR

What it is. ASR — alkali-silica reaction, often called "concrete cancer" — is a chemical reaction inside concrete that causes it to crack and expand over time. It has affected pools across Central Texas built since about 2017.

Why we are testing this pool. Pools built in 2020 and 2021 have been identified as especially at risk, and this pool was built in that window. We observed a hairline crack in the spa seat during our tour. A crack alone is not a diagnosis — many cracks are cosmetic. But on a pool of this age, it is the reason to test before you commit.

Why it matters financially. ASR generally cannot be repaired. The affected pool is demolished and rebuilt. Reported replacement costs in Central Texas typically run $200,000 to $500,000, plus the time the pool is out of use during demolition and rebuild.

How it is tested. Core samples are drilled from the pool shell and examined under a microscope by a laboratory (petrographic analysis).

Two Testing Options

Our recommendation:

  1. Let the John Ford test proceed — its speed protects your position.
  1. Require that a core sample is taken at the spa crack, and that you receive the complete lab report directly.
  1. Ask the sellers to hold the waterline tile replacement until testing is complete. New tile would cover part of the pool surface an inspector needs to see as it is today.
  1. Reserve a place in WJE's queue now as a safeguard. If the John Ford result is clear and you are comfortable, it can be released; if the result is unclear, you are already weeks closer to a second opinion.

If the Pool Test Comes Back Positive

You would have three clear paths:

  1. The sellers replace the pool before closing, to an agreed specification, with a written warranty.
  1. The sellers credit the full replacement cost, supported by written bids — typically $200,000 to $500,000 — and you manage the rebuild after closing.
  1. You step away within your option period, with your earnest money returned.

A confirmed ASR result is a known condition the sellers would need to disclose to any future buyer, so a fair resolution with you is in their interest as well.

If the test is clear, we proceed on the terms below.

Our Offer Strategy

Read the "what it signals" column first. Each figure assumes a clean pool result and includes the private slip at $250,000.

Our recommendation: open at $3,950,000 and aim to close near $4,050,000. Above $4,200,000, you would be paying a premium no resale in this gate has achieved, and we would advise against it.

Because you are paying cash: there is no lender appraisal to act as an outside check on price. This analysis is that check — which is why we hold to the ceiling. Cash is also a real advantage in negotiation: no financing contingency, no appraisal, and a faster, more certain close.

Timing: Two Ways to Approach This

Option A — Engage before it launches (our recommendation). The sellers are preparing the home now and expect to list in about two weeks. That is our window. We share this resale data with the listing agent before an asking price is published, and present a cash offer with terms tied to the pool test. A price set after seeing the data has a better chance of meeting the market, and the sellers avoid the disruption of public showings. The expedited pool results are due in roughly the same two-week window.

Option B — Wait for the public launch. If the home lists near $4.6M, the evidence suggests it will sit. We monitor it, and re-engage after 30 to 60 days with the same data and a stronger position. The risk is another buyer — limited by the price — and the chance you find another home you prefer in the meantime.

Either way, the pool test runs first. Nothing is final until you have that result.

Your Ownership Costs

Estimated annual costs at our $4,050,000 target:

On taxes: after a sale, the appraisal district typically reassesses toward the purchase price. Your bill reflects the new value, so we budget from the purchase price, not the sellers' current bill. We will help you file your homestead exemption promptly after closing. We will confirm the current tax rate and the seller's current assessment before you commit.

Next Steps

  1. Confirm your target and ceiling — we review this analysis together.
  1. Pool testing — confirm John Ford's scope and sample locations; request a pause on the waterline tile; reserve a WJE slot.
  1. Pre-market conversation — we share the resale data with the listing agent and present your offer.
  1. Contract terms — an option period that runs until the pool results are in, with clear remedies.
  1. Homeowner's insurance — because this is a cash purchase, insurance is the one item to secure before you are committed. We either bind coverage within the option period or add a separate amendment that gives you time to obtain it. We will also prepare proof of funds to accompany your offer and confirm the slip transfer documents and fees.
  1. Full inspection — general inspection plus pool, roof and HVAC specialists during the option period.

We have seen this situation before. The right home at the right price, with the pool question answered — that is the outcome we are working toward.

Daniel & Jacquelyn Foreman | Foreman Property Group | eXp Realty Luxury